Sperling warns of continued vehicle growth

The number of personal vehicles in the world continues to increase rapidly, growing ten-fold from 1950 to 1990, and about half of all oil consumed is used for transportation. Current trends anticipate 3.5 billion vehicles by 2050, with vehicle travel forecast to increase five-fold, according to Daniel Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California, Davis. Sperling presented a seminar at NDSU September 9, sponsored by the Small Urban & Rural Transit Center.

Personal transportation is available at low cost, resulting in greater mobility in developing countries along with increased energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, Sperling said. There has been a proliferation of small vehicles, including motorcycles and small farm-type vehicles also used for transportation. Many of these are very inefficient and emit large amounts of carbon and other pollutants.

The average carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 375 parts per million in 1990 compared to a pre-industrial baseline of 250 ppm. The level is predicted to hit 550 ppm about 2050, unless the level is stabilized by reducing carbon emissions. Just stabilizing carbon dioxide at a level around 450 to 550 ppm would require reducing emissions by as much as 90 percent from projected levels, Sperling said. Achieving this would require revolutionary change.

The world fossil fuel potential is huge, he said, but it is not evenly distributed, and unconventional sources such as coal, tar sands and oil shale have high environmental and economic costs.

In the United States, Sperling said, trends are heading in the "wrong" direction, with one important exception. Air pollution is steadily dropping in most U.S. cities. However, transit's share of transportation is decreasing, vehicle use is increasing and vehicles are getting larger and heavier, and fuel economy continues to fall. Vehicle travel is increasing much faster than the population, and the U.S. transportation system is a "monoculture" dominated by cars run on petroleum fuel.

Fuel economy of U.S. vehicles has been getting slowly worse since the mid 1980s. Today's vehicles actually have higher technical efficiency, but fuel economy is being traded for vehicle weight, power and performance. Sperling said there have been tremendous engineering advances, but not to improve economy.

What can be done? A combination of strategies to reduce vehicular travel, improve conventional technology, and introduce advanced vehicles and low-carbon fuels, he said. A study in the San Francisco Bay area identified a list of behavioral strategies to reduce vehicular travel, including reduced transit fares, improved transit service, car pooling, additional gas taxes, smog-based vehicle registration fees, regional congestion pricing, and non-work parking charges.

In Europe there is a goal of reducing carbon dioxide emissions of light cars by 25 percent by 2008. The major strategy planned to accomplish this goal is a 90 percent penetration of diesel cars. European policy favors diesel cars while U.S. standards are 5 to 10 times more stringent. The goal is a collective target rather than individual automakers, and the European auto industry is more or less on track to meet the objective, Sperling said.

Sperling sees the pathway to a "sustainable" vehicle as involving internal combustion-electric hybrids and the hydrogen fuel cell. Batteries continue to improve, he said, but the industry has decided that battery powered electric cars is not the way to go. Battery cars cost more, but they do work in limited applications and can be competitive. The hybrid electric car can have a downsized engine that operates where most efficient and uses batteries to capture braking energy.

Sperling cited Toyota's strategy to introduce more hybrid vehicles. Engineering improvements are present as the 2004 Toyota Prius is larger, more powerful and has better fuel economy and lower emissions than the 2001 model, at the same price.

Success of fuel cell vehicles will depend on marketing them as a new product because they will not be able to compete with internal combustion vehicles on a cost basis for many years. Fuel cell engines do have desirable attributes, including smooth, powerful acceleration, silent operation, high power on demand, and quiet, clean mobile power generation. Manufacturers' costs could be reduced by an expanded design envelope and elimination of costs for emission controls.

Sperling said the trend toward intelligent transportation now involves local government and car companies, each providing small improvements. The question is how to achieve large improvements. What is needed is a new mobility system involving smart car sharing, dynamic ride sharing and smart transit systems. These concepts can be combined to make transportation more convenient and less costly, if people are willing to accept some minor inconveniences.

Possible benefits of car sharing, for example, could include motorists having access to different types of vehicles, such as a small economical car to use during the work week and a larger vehicle to haul recreational equipment on the weekend.

Communication and information technology could spur major improvements in transportation efficiency, he said.